Event Catalyst: $GEO up another 5%

Title 42 possibilities

In an article published yesterday, we wrote why GEO Group (GEO) was moving aggressively upward. For those who missed it, Title 42, a policy designed to limit immigration during the pandemic, will be removed on May 11th. Should this get removed, there will be a huge increase in demand for GEO Group’s ICE facilities, their transportation business and their electronic monitoring segment.

The removal of Title 42 is a huge catalyst for GEO Group and could increase their EBITDA and free cash flow by a meaningful amount. As cash flow is generated, GEO will pay down their debts, de-lever the balance sheet and begin to return capital back to shareholders.

Let’s dig into the economics on the removal of Title 42 and why we are extremely excited about this event catalyst.